PSJ WEALTH

Mr. Charanjit Singh

Assistant Vice President - Equity, DSP Mutual Fund

Charanjit has a total work experience of over 16 years. He joined DSP Mutual Fund in September 2018 as Assistant Vice President in Equity Team. Charanjit has also worked with B&K Securities, Axis Capital, BNP Paribas Securities, Thomas Weisel Partners, HSBC, IDC Corp and Frost & Sullivan. He is a MBA in Finance and also holds a B.Tech in Electronics and Communication.

Q1. Regarding Operation Sindoor news, how do you anticipate its impact on market volatility? Do you expect significant fluctuations, or will the markets likely remain range-bound given the anticipated nature of this news?

Ans 1. Operation Sindoor has fundamentally altered perceptions of India's military capabilities and regional power status, establishing a new deterrence dynamic with Pakistan and signaling India's readiness to act decisively. The operation initially triggered market volatility but markets quickly stabilized and remained range-bound, with defence stocks rallying on expectations of increased spending before some profit-taking. The government's planned Rs 50,000 crore supplementary defence budget boost and increased focus on advanced military technologies and infrastructure sectors are likely to sustain positive sectoral momentum. Overall, Operation Sindoor has created selective opportunities in defence, infrastructure, and technology sectors amid a stable market environment, reflecting investor confidence in India's strategic and economic resilience. This mirrors the historical pattern where geopolitical crises cause short-term volatility but ultimately reinforce market strength and sectoral growth in areas aligned with national priorities.

Q2. What do you consider the most significant driver of market movement this year? Will it be interest rates, commodity prices, tariffs, or something else that will primarily dictate market volatility?

Ans 2. Markets have digested the uncertainty related to global tariff wars on hopes of lesser disruption and trade agreements by major economies. However, end to global turmoil is not in sight as Chinese growth is slowing down, US interest rates are holding steady and interest rates in Japan are moving up. Overall, the scenario is ripe for another 50bps rate cut by RBI over the next 6 months, however the declining rate differential with US and other large economies is a key factor to watch out for. Conditions are ripe for domestic demand recovery given lowest food inflation (1.78%) from Nov21 and CPI (3.16%) since August 2019, Strong crop output for Kharif and Rabi in FY25 (6.8% and >3% growth), normal monsoon prediction (106% of LPA) and benefits of tax cuts.

FY26 consensus earnings forecasts have been resilient through the reporting season. There could be a possibility of earnings upgrades in H2FY26. This is driven by two factors: i) consensus has not captured the full second-order impact of monetary easing and ii) soft commodity prices could produce margin surprises across sectors. We see the strongest likelihood of upgrades in discretionary, energy and technology sectors. Strong earnings resilience should help sustain momentum in Indian equities. Valuations are now in neutral territory, with the Nifty trading at long term average on 1 year forward P/E while 30% of BSE200 stocks are trading at P/Es that are over 1 standard deviation over long term average. Valuations could overshoot if earnings momentum accelerates, especially with strong tailwinds from monetary easing. We would use any short-term correction to add to positions.

Q3. What is the current sentiment of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) towards Indian markets? Despite recent net buying, they've withdrawn more than Rs 13,000 crore from the cash segment of Indian equity markets in April month.

Ans 3. The US-China agreement marks the passing of peak tariff pain. This tariff shock is likely to weigh on global trade/ economy. There will be rotation in to emerging markets led by reversal of US exceptionalism. This could lead to big lead to big flow out of US into the emerging markets which could be large as 1 trn USD. Over the last 4yrs FIIs sold $10bn over Apr 2021-March 2025. In last 10yrs net FII investment is almost negligible. There could be reversal of this trade someday which will lead to FII to start investing in India as a catchup trade. While India is in a better position given the limited dependence on trade, a currency competition has the potential to dent its recovery. India being a net importer will also face a depreciation dilemma many other EMs will not. Domestic macro and flows can support, but we do not anticipate FII flows to return quickly in such an environment. A fruitful trade treaty with the US will change the outlook.

Q4. Considering the recent earnings performance, the previously attractive banking and financial sector seems less compelling. In this market environment, where do you believe investors can find a significant margin of safety? If not financials, which sectors might offer promising opportunities?

Ans 4. Market concentration is rising as investors flocking to large-caps amidst correction. In previous episodes of rising concentration, defensive sectors, especially FMCG and Pharma outperformed in all episodes, whereas IT outperformed in two instances (2010-13 and 2017-20). For 2025 the quality factor could be the main investing theme which would keep consumption, pharma and IT sectors as main investing areas. While industrials could get impacted due to weaker capex growth by Central Government and slow revival in private capex. Selective sectors like Defense, Hospitals, Electronics, Capital Markets and Telecom could be also evaluated for investments based on the valuation comfort.

Q5. Given gold's recent rally to ₹1 lakh and its outperformance against equities, is the market now viewing it not only as a safe haven but also as a primary driver of returns?

Ans 5. Gold has trended lower since testing an all-time high of USD 3,500/oz on 22 April. The downward shift has been accompanied by ETP outflows and speculative positioning being scaled back, but China's demand remains supportive. Gold's rally has not been driven by a sole factor, and drivers from central bank flows to USD weakness remain supportive of further highs. While fears over the risk of recession remain and could stoke additional safe-haven demand for gold, a number of risks linger. These include: (1) slowing central bank buying; (2) de-escalation of tariff risks and increased market confidence; (3) market expectations around US rate cuts pausing or swinging to rate hikes; and (4) short-term risk from further volatility across other asset classes, leading to another liquidity rush or cash needs for margin calls, which would weigh on gold.

Q6. What's the outlook for investing in small and mid-cap stocks as we move into FY26? How should investors approach this segment?

Ans 6. Small and mid-cap stocks have experienced volatility recently, partly due to geopolitical tensions and investor rotation into thematic and sectoral funds. Looking ahead to FY26, these segments offer growth potential but come with higher risk and sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Large caps benefiting from domestic recovery should be the focus, while SMIDs should be looked selectively where one spots fair bottom-up valuations.

Mr. Sandeep Yadav

Head - Fixed Income India, DSP Mutual Fund

Sandeep has a total work experience of more than 20 years. He joined DSP Mutual Funds in September 2021 as Senior Vice President - Fixed Income Investments. Sandeep has previously worked for Yes Bank, and had headed the Derivatives Structuring, Fixed Income Trading and Primary Dealership. Prior to that Sandeep had worked in Technology space in Cognizant Technologies, Hughes Services and Mahindra British Telecom. He is a Computer Engineer (Pune University) and PGDBM (IIM Bangalore). Sandeep is also a CFA chartered holder.

Q1. What is your assessment of the RBI's recent announcement of a ₹1.25 lakh crore liquidity infusion in May? What do you believe were the primary drivers behind the RBI's decision to lower the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) at this juncture?

Ans 1. RBI has turned accommodative in its monetary policy looking at the growth inflation dynamics - in particular, decline in inflation, reaching a low of 3.16% in April-2025 helped shape the monetary policy view, and help support India's GDP slowdown - linked to consumption slowdown currently, but the global growth environment also remains patchy. So the RBI worked to remove liquidity deficits in banking system liquidity to enable growth - In Jan-25 durable liquidity was negative INR 45,000cr and is currently upwards of INR 3 lakh crore (and expected to increase). The expectation, basis current trends is that not only will liquidity be left on the table, but there will be further rate cuts as well.

Q2. How do you currently view the Indian fixed income market in comparison to its global counterparts? Specifically, what do you see as the most significant opportunities and unique risks for investors in Indian fixed income at this time?

Ans 2. India's fixed income market has been marching to its own beat lately and has been remarkably resilient even as global interest rates continue to rise. This is driven significantly by the domestic demand supply factors, anchored by the Government’s commitment to maintain fiscal discipline, growing financialization (growth in insurance, pension all lead to demand, besides banking system demand) and the expectations that RBI will cut rates.

The opportunities come from a relatively stable and well-orchestrated macro environment. The risks come from potential fiscal slippage - this could happen if GDP slows (lower probability) or say greater defense spending (difficult to predict). Furthermore, even as inflation is getting anchored, unpredictability of monsoons can lead to food inflation, and then on inflationary expectations. Note that India potentially may lower tariffs and lead to better inflation outcomes, different from problems elsewhere.

Q3. How do you see the Fed's current stance on inflation impacting the shape of the yield curve over the next 12 months?

Ans 3. The Fed is now on wait and watch given its dual mandate. On inflation, it is the permanence of tariff inflation and one time shocks, even as tariffs themselves are being negotiated. The Fed will also need to look at labour market developments, and whether this policy uncertainty will lead to any slow down. While they said they are currently watching, the market is busy pricing the extent of rate cuts, and all over the place!

The next important point is on term premia aka shape of the yield curve. We are at a unique time politically in the World with changes in world order. Europe needs to spend more on defense. US is betting on import substitution (we Indians know it well!) and trying to pass a bill which will increase fiscal deficit and debt/GDP. Hence the curve has steepened significantly there. So again, in as much the Fed can influence policy rates, the US curve will move to its own demand supply dynamics, including foreign demand. India continues to March to its own beat.

Q4. Are accrual strategies still attractive at this stage of the interest rate cycle, or is it time to switch to dynamic/active duration funds?

Ans 4. The choice between active and accrual strategy is not one or the other. An active strategy can, and should, actively move to the accrual strategy if it is more beneficial. The choice is eventually between accrual and capital gains (duration) strategy (rather than accrual and active).

In our active funds, we have advocated preference to capital gains (duration) over accrual for the past two years. In fact the ideal time to shift to duration strategy was a few quarters back. We may move to accrual strategy in the next few quarters when we believe that the capital gains may be behind us.

In terms of lower rated credits, it is always prudent to invest in companies with good governance, and from a mutual fund perspective, be careful of liquidity risks as well.

Q5. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers of the Indian debt market, pulling out a record $2.27 billion up to April 2025. What is triggering the outflows?

Ans 5. The FPI inflow story for now has run its course with the expected passive inflows due to inclusion in JP Morgan flows. Now the FPI flows will be determined by trading interest of foreign participants, who will also be looking at opportunities elsewhere, stability of INR and geopolitical risks. This will make flows volatile and less predictable, but is still small in the context of the depth of the Indian market.

Note: Views provided above are based on information in the public domain and subject to change. Investors are requested to consult their mutual fund distributor for any investment decisions.

Mr. Shriram Ramanathan

Chief Investment Officer - FIXED INCOME, HSBC Mutual Fund

CIO - Fixed Income, overseeing the management of about INR40,000cr (~USD 8bn), in assets across various Fixed income and Hybrid funds (INR only).

He has been in the Asset Management business since 2001 and has over 22 years of experience in fixed income markets.

Prior to joining HSBC Asset Management, he was Head of Fixed Income at L&T Investment Management Limited (2012-2022).

From 2010-2012, he was Portfolio Manager at Fidelity (FIL) Fund Management managing their India domiciled INR FI funds.

From 2005-2009, Shriram was based in Hong Kong at ING Investment Management Asia Pacific, where he managed multi currency portfolios as Senior portfolio Manager, Global EMD (Asia) - co-managing the Asian portion of Emerging Market Debt funds, with focus on sovereign HC and LC rates/ FX, as well as pure Asia local currency funds / mandates.

His earlier assignments were with ING Investment Management India as Fixed Income Fund Manager, Zurich Asset Management Company in fixed income research and with the Treasury department of ICICI Ltd, where he started his career in investments in 2000.

Shriram is a Chartered Financial Analyst and holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Management from XLRI Jamshedpur and an Engineering degree from the University of Mumbai.

Q1. To maintain liquidity, the RBI has implemented several measures, including the highest net OMO purchase activity in India since FY21. Now that there is a surplus in the system, how do you see the RBI's focus evolving, and what could be its next steps to sustain economic growth?

Ans 1. RBI has been extremely proactive in managing liquidity over the last few months, delivering more than market expectations. The below table highlights the liquidity tools utilized by RBI over the last few months. By the end of April 2025, RBI would have injected around INR 7.3 Lakh Crs worth of durable liquidity into the system (including CRR cut, OMO purchases and FX Buy Sell Swap).

In the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Governor emphasized that the RBI is committed to provide sufficient system liquidity and will proactively take appropriate measures to ensure liquidity remains adequate. At the press conference, the Governor indicated that a surplus of around 1% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) was considered as a reasonable assessment of liquidity. RBI believes that maintaining this surplus is essential to ensure that the policy easing conducted till now and future rate cuts get transmitted effectively into the economy. We believe RBI will continue to support growth through further policy easing and liquidity infusion.

Q2. What are your expectations for the interest rate cycle, considering the growing indications of potential easing? Reports suggest that the RBI governor may lean toward lowering interest rates further. Are you anticipating a mild or more significant easing, and what assumptions are you factoring in for interest rates in India?

Ans 2. Domestic inflation has softened considerably, with the last two inflation prints significantly below 4%. The outlook for food inflation has turned decisively positive on robust agriculture output. RBI expects headline inflation to remain below 4% for the next three quarters and FY2026 inflation to be at 4%. Recent fall in crude prices also augers well from a domestic inflation perspective. On the other hand, RBI revised lower their GDP forecasts, with FY2026 GDP now expected at 6.50%. With global trade and tariff related policies clearly expected to impede growth, risks of growth numbers undershooting estimates remain. Against this backdrop, we believe RBI will continue to support growth through further policy easing and liquidity infusion.

Additionally, the stance change to ‘accommodative' in the recent MPC meeting clearly indicates a dovish shift in policy guidance, and implies that the current easing cycle could see deeper rate cuts than earlier envisaged. We expect RBI to further cut rates by another 50-75 bps taking the terminal rate to 5.25%-5.50%, assuming inflation remains in line with RBI estimates.

Q3. Indian bond yields have been hitting three-year lows, driven by the RBI's OMO purchases and global market dynamics. How do you see bond yields evolving from here, and what's your perspective on their future movement?

Ans 3. Indian bonds continue to see positive momentum. What started initially, with the global index inclusion (adding another significant investor segment to Indian bonds), continued with domestic demand supply turning favourable driven by fiscal discipline demonstrated by the Government, positive growth in AUMs of domestic investor segments and followed up by easing in policy rates, liquidity infusion and large OMO purchases conducted by the RBI. India has remained resilient even in an environment of increased volatility in global markets, given RBI's proactive and timely measures.

However, we believe that there are further legs to this rally. We expect RBI to further cut rates by another 50-75 bps taking the terminal rate to 5.25%-5.50%. We also expect RBI to remain proactive on liquidity measures. RBI is also expected to transfer dividend to the Government to the tune of around INR 2.5 Lakh Crs in May, which will be positive for Government bonds. Corporate bond spreads also remain fairly high, and with liquidity expected to remain positive, we expect to see spread compression in corporate bonds. We continue to expect yields to move decisively lower, along with steepening of the yield curve and encourage investors to have adequate duration in their portfolios to benefit from lower rates, subject to their risk return frameworks.

Q4. S&P has revised India's GDP forecast downward by 20 bps, from 6.7% to 6.5%. Do you believe this downgrade is primarily due to tariff-related uncertainties, or could internal factors like commodity inflation, monsoon conditions, or other headwinds also be contributing? What do you think is the rationale behind this downward revision in India's GDP outlook?

Ans 4. We believe the downward revision of India's GDP by S&P from 6.7% to 6.5% reflects a combination of both global and domestic challenges. While tariff-related uncertainties and global trade tensions largely contribute to the revision, domestic factors also cannot be ignored. Slow capex revival along with muted pick in exports have impacted growth.

However, manufacturing activity is showing signs of revival and the services sector remains resilient. Investment activity is picking up on the back of the Government's push on infrastructure spending. While monsoons are expected to remain normal this year, the impact of heat waves will have to be monitored. From a debt market point of view, the underlying factors support a cautious outlook on growth and are likely to push RBI to stay accommodative for longer.

Q5. Do you believe bonds currently present a better investment opportunity than equities, given the rising uncertainty and stretched valuations?

Ans 5. Equities, both globally and domestically have remained fairly volatile over the last few months. Risks of recessionary impact in the US along with increased risks of tariffs and global trade wars along with stretched valuations can continue to keep equity markets volatile.

On the other hand, under a proactive RBI along with strong domestic macro fundamentals, benign inflation and relatively stable currency, we believe Indian debt markets are appropriately placed to offer favourable risk reward to investors. For investors looking at safety and steady income, Indian bond markets offer good value along with asset diversification and predictability in returns at relatively lower risk. Not only can investors benefit from steady income they can also possibly generate alpha in a falling interest rate environment while staying invested for a medium-term investment horizon. Corporate bond spreads also remain high, which are likely to benefit from spread compression in an easy liquidity environment.

We continue to expect yields to move lower, along with steepening of the yield curve and encourage investors to have adequate duration in their portfolios to benefit from lower rates, subject to their risk return frameworks.

Q6. As a Debt Fund Manager, what difference do you see in the thought process of two governors in terms of Liquidity, Inflation, and Growth?

Ans 6. While both Governors operated in different global and domestic macro environments, we observed few differences in the approaches of the two RBI Governors on different factors like liquidity, inflation, growth and currency.

In the earlier regime, just shortly after the Governor took over, the world was hit by the pandemic, which required the RBI to strongly support growth and keep easy liquidity in the system for a longer period of time for smooth functioning of the economy. This was broadly in line with what other Central Banks did during that period. However, once inflation picked up RBI had to tighten monetary policy. Over the last two-three years growth picked up sharply, and hence the primary focus remained on controlling inflation resulting in tighter monetary policy and subsequently tighter liquidity conditions. This was also because we saw multiple instances of sharp increase in food inflation due to various factors, which made it imperative to operate with primary focus on inflation. Hence, in the earlier regime the approach was more cautious and focused on protecting the economy from high inflation risks, as was the need of the hour. The Governor also believed that markets should operate in a low volatility environment as it allows smooth functioning of financial markets, which resulted in a period where Rupee became one of the least volatile currencies as RBI continuously intervened to keep Rupee fairly stable.

In the current regime, the Governor is seen to be prompt and more proactive in his actions. During the period where Dollar strengthened considerably, RBI let Rupee depreciate in line with other currencies to keep it competitive, but once RBI felt that speculative positions were building up, they intervened strongly to discourage such moves. Once, inflation turned benign, RBI focused attention towards growth, as was again the need of the hour. Not only did RBI begin easing rates, it also infused considerable amounts of durable liquidity into the system to ensure that rate transmission happens smoothly and promptly in the economy. One key difference observed was in the communication of policy stance by the Governors. While earlier there was some ambiguity in market participants pertaining to reference of stance (whether it referred to rate trajectory or liquidity), the current Governor made it explicitly clear that the stance provides policy rate guidance, without any direct guidance on liquidity management.

While both the Governor's approach reflected their reading of global risks, domestic inflation trends and India's growth path, India has and continues to remain a bright spot in terms of a strong monetary policy framework by RBI and stable macro-economic factors. We have respected the approaches of both the Governors and learnt to adapt our strategies accordingly.

Note: Views provided above are based on information in the public domain and subject to change. Investors are requested to consult their mutual fund distributor for any investment decisions.

Source: Bloomberg & HSBC MF Research estimates as on April 20, 2025 or as latest available

Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited (HSBC) for information purposes only and should not be construed as i) an offer or recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities, currencies or other investments referred to herein; or ii) an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer for purchase of any of the funds of HSBC Mutual Fund; or iii) an investment research or investment advice. It does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek personal and independent advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of the funds, securities, other investment or investment strategies that may have been discussed or referred herein and should understand that the views regarding future prospects may or may not be realized. In no event shall HSBC Mutual Fund/HSBC Asset management (India) Private Limited and / or its affiliates or any of their directors, trustees, officers and employees be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use of information / opinion herein. This document is intended only for those who access it from within India and approved for distribution in Indian jurisdiction only. Distribution of this document to anyone (including investors, prospective investors or distributors) who are located outside India or foreign nationals residing in India, is strictly prohibited. Neither this document nor the units of HSBC Mutual Fund have been registered under Securities law/Regulations in any foreign jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be unlawful or restricted or totally prohibited and accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions. If any person chooses to access this document from a jurisdiction other than India, then such person do so at his/her own risk and HSBC and its group companies will not be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that such person commits as a result of doing so.

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Mr. Venugopal Manghat

Chief Investment Officer - Equity, HSBC Mutual Fund

Venugopal Manghat is the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) - Equity of HSBC Mutual Fund. Venugopal was previously Head - Equity Investments, L&T Investment Management Limited from May 2016 to Nov 2022 and was Co-Head - Equity Investments, L&T Investment Management Limited from Apr 2012 - Apr 2016. Prior to 2012, he was Co-Head - Equities, Tata Asset Management Limited, India from 1995 - 2012. His educational qualification is MBA Finance, B.SC (Mathematics).

Q1. March witnessed a sharp reversal from heavy selling to a recovery. Has the market truly stabilized, or are we experiencing a temporary lull?

Ans 1. Indian equity markets corrected 14% from October 2024 to February 2025 driven by slowdown in domestic economy and global concerns, resulting in lower earnings growth for FY25. Since March 2025, equity markets have posted 8% returns. The recovery has been driven by improving domestic economy conditions on the back of better liquidity conditions, lower inflation, bumper Rabi harvest, rate cuts by RBI and resumption of central government capex. However, the global economic scenario remains in a state of flux with concerns over slowing US economic growth, weakening dollar, rising treasury yields and tariff uncertainty. While we believe India is relatively better placed among global peers, there may be a possibility that the market may consolidate in a range for some time, until the global uncertainty settles down.

Q2. India has been positioning itself as a viable alternative to China for manufacturing and investment. Do you think Trump's tariffs could further accelerate this shift? Additionally, how might this impact investment in Indian equity markets, especially considering the recent market recovery?

Ans 2. India's global manufacturing share stands merely at 2.7% vs China's share of more than 30%. Globally, many countries and companies had started to reduce their dependence on China and diversify supply chains, especially post disruption during Covid.

While it is too early to comment on how Trump tariffs will impact China, we see countries looking to enter more bilateral deals and moving away from China. Consequently, India becomes a great alternative destination driven by favourable demographics, labour cost advantages, government initiatives such as Make in India, Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) and improving ease of doing business.

We see some companies in the electronics, capital goods, textiles, auto, etc. may being beneficiaries of this diversification. Foreign investors may also show more interest in Indian equity markets driven by this diversification benefit.

Q3. Which sectors do you believe offer the greatest growth potential over the next 3-5 years, and what makes them promising?

Ans 3. We see the following sectors most attractively placed over the medium-term:

Consumer Discretionary: As India's per capita income keeps increasing, we see consumption, especially, discretionary consumption to outperform the broader markets. The key drivers to this out-performance should be increased formalization, urbanization, digitization and convenience.

Financials: India has a fast-growing high net worth individual (HNI) and ultra-high net worth individual (UHNI) base driving investments outside the traditional asset class of bank deposits. The theme is clearly playing out with mutual funds garnering 20%+ growth over the past 10 years. Further, with resumption of RBI rate cuts, improving liquidity conditions and concerns on deposit growth abating, NBFCs and banks should also perform well.

Capital Goods: We are positive on the domestic manufacturing and Capital Goods sector may be a major beneficiary. The government has taken various initiatives such as PLI incentives, lowering corporate tax rates, GST and ease of doing business over the past years. These measures coupled with tailwinds in terms of China + 1 policy, favourable demographic and cost advantages in terms of labour, we see domestic manufacturing as a multi-year theme.

Infrastructure: The government has a keen focus on building the supply side of economy and remains committed towards investment in roads, railways, metros, ports, airports and defence. We see Power as a key multi-year theme with rising peak power deficits. We see considerable capex growth coming from the Power T&D segment and expect to see healthy order flows and activity from the sector.

Q4. Would you advise retail investors to diversify into global markets? What would be an ideal portfolio allocation?

Ans 4. We believe the fundamentals of the India long-term growth story continues to remain intact and the economy remains in an expansion phase. India has a strong domestic growth story, favourable demographics, government support for manufacturing and digital adoption. Over the next 5-10 years, India is likely to see steady growth in earnings and stock market performance.

Indian equity markets have been one of the best performing equity markets delivering mid-teens returns over the past decade or so. We see India's relative global attractiveness to remain intact over the coming years and advise long-term equity investors to remain firmly invested.

Q5. Recently, we've seen strong FII buying activity. The key question is, are FIIs making a lasting comeback? Can we expect this momentum to sustain moving forward?

Ans 5. FII ownership in Indian equity markets has been continuously trending down from a high of 25.3% in March 2015 to 20.4% in Dec 2024. On the other hand, DII share is at an all-time high of 16.9% in Dec 2024 led by higher ownership of mutual funds. Accordingly, FII/ DII ownership ratio is at multi-decadal lows in Dec 2024 (see chart below). With healthy domestic flows continuing, we expect FII influence to keep coming down.

The recent inflows by FIIs is a reflection of India's high underweight position in Emerging Markets (see chart below). India's weight relative to benchmark (MSCI Emerging Markets Index) is at multi-decade lows offering attractive risk-reward for FIIs. Further, India's external situation remains fairly strong with $680 bn+ foreign exchange reserves. While FII flows may remain volatile over the short-term driven by the global uncertainty, currently India offers the best relative attractiveness for FIIs from a long-term perspective.

India average weighting relative to MSCI benchmark and net OW/UW:

Q6. With the recent fall in Broader Indices, do you think valuations have begun to normalize? Which category (Large, Mid & Small) has become more lucrative post correction?

Ans 6. Post recent strong years of 7%+ GDP growth, we see GDP growth moderating to 6-7% in FY25/FY26. Further, the global volatile environment is creating high uncertainty. Accordingly, valuations have seen corrections across market caps.

Empirical evidence suggests that smaller companies have been found to do well in expanding economic cycles or when economic growth rates are rising, leading to higher earnings growth rates. Another advantage of small caps is that its universe is the largest and is continuously expanding with more stocks getting added, many in relatively newer and niche sectors. Since the economy is expected to compound in nominal terms at a fast pace over the next several years there will be opportunities for companies, especially the smaller ones to grow.

On a longer-term basis, therefore we continue to be of the view that smaller companies may generate better returns and alpha from the market. However, in periods of short-term uncertainty (similar to current one), large caps should outperform mid and small caps. Hence, we believe that an optimum mix of mid and small cap stocks in an equity portfolio is important for long-term wealth building in a growth-oriented economy like India.

Note: Views provided above are based on information in the public domain and subject to change. Investors are requested to consult their mutual fund distributor for any investment decisions.

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL & HSBC MF estimates as on April 20, 2025 end or as latest available.

Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited (HSBC) for information purposes only and should not be construed as i) an offer or recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities, currencies or other investments referred to herein; or ii) an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer for purchase of any of the funds of HSBC Mutual Fund; or iii) an investment research or investment advice. It does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek personal and independent advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of the funds, securities, other investment or investment strategies that may have been discussed or referred to herein and should understand that the views regarding future prospects may or may not be realized. In no event shall HSBC Mutual Fund/HSBC Asset management (India) Private Limited and / or its affiliates or any of their directors, trustees, officers and employees be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use of information / opinion herein. This document is intended only for those who access it from within India and approved for distribution in Indian jurisdiction only. Distribution of this document to anyone (including investors, prospective investors or distributors) who are located outside India or foreign nationals residing in India, is strictly prohibited. Neither this document nor the units of HSBC Mutual Fund have been registered under Securities law/Regulations in any foreign jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be unlawful or restricted or totally prohibited and accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions. If any person chooses to access this document from a jurisdiction other than India, then such person does so at his/her own risk and HSBC and its group companies will not be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that such person commits as a result of doing so.

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Mr. Vikas Garg

Head - Fixed Income India, Invesco Mutual Fund

Vikas heads the Fixed Income investment function at Invesco India and also serves as a fund manager for various duration-oriented debt schemes at Invesco India. He has over 19 years' of experience, of which 17 years' are in the asset management industry spanning across credit research and portfolio management. In his last assignment, Vikas was working with L&T Mutual Fund as a Portfolio Manager where he was responsible for managing the Debt funds in various categories, including the high yield-oriented funds. In the past, he has worked in the credit research team with companies like FIL Fund Management Pvt. Ltd. and ICRA Ltd. Vikas holds B. Tech & M. Tech in Chemical Engineering from IIT- Delhi, PGDBM from XLRI -Jamshedpur and has cleared CFA (USA) Level III.

Q1. Given that the Reserve Bank of India has initiated its rate cut cycle, do you foresee an additional reduction in lending rates during the upcoming April policy meeting?

Ans: MPC has kickstarted the rate cut cycle with 25 bps in Feb 2025, after almost 5 years. Since then, global as well domestic factors have turned more favorable for the 2nd consecutive rate cut in April policy. Globally, while the inflationary threat of US's tariff policy lingers, it has also raised concerns about US's economic growth. Recent moderation in US's CPI & jobs market reflected that, and even FOMC highlighted the same in its March policy when it delivered a dovish pause. Back home, Feb 2025 headline inflation has come at 3.61%, much better than expectations and with that, 4QFY25 average inflation may remain closer to 4% as against RBI's projections of 4.4%. The recent monthly trade deficit came in sharply lower, and for the first time, net monthly service exports exceeded the trade deficit. The INR has recovered well after almost touching 88 against the Dollar. RBI has initiated various liquidity measures like Open Market Purchase operations of G-Sec and Fx swap in order to provide durable liquidity. 3QFY25 GDP growth has recovered to an extent over the previous quarter but the risk factors remain high amidst global policy flux, posing challenge to RBI's projected GDP growth of 6.7% for FY26. With these factors, we expect RBI to turn its focus on growth support with another 25 bps rate cut in the forthcoming April 2025 policy. The new MPC's more flexible approach to inflation trajectory under the inflation targeting framework provides room for further rate cuts, however, it may also depend upon the global situation.

Q2. RBI recently announced a $21 billion liquidity infusion through open market operations and foreign exchange swaps. How do you foresee these measures influencing bond yields and the overall fixed-income market?"

Ans: There has been a marked change in RBI's forex and liquidity management approach since December 2024. Even as the banking liquidity has been in deficit for quite some time, RBI has been providing enough liquidity through VRRs thereby maintaining the overnight TREPs yield close to the policy repo rate. Additionally, RBI has been providing durable liquidity through OMOs and Fx swap. While all these measures have helped reduce the liquidity deficit, short end money market and corporate bond yields are still elevated. We expect the banking liquidity to turn adequately surplus over next 2 months with RBI's continued liquidity measures and RBI's dividend in May, thereby triggering a downward movement in short end yields. We expect RBI to use OMOs as a major liquidity tool to inject durable liquidity which will further sweeten the demand-supply dynamics for G-Sec, especially in the 5-15 yr segment.

Q3. How important is duration management in the current economic environment? What approaches do you recommend for aligning portfolio duration with investment objectives?

Ans: With the likelihood of further rate cuts by RBI and improving banking liquidity over the next few months, the overall risk-reward remains favorable at the current juncture. However, it is also important to position appropriately on the yield curve. The G-Sec yield curve is steep as of now, especially in the 5 – 15 yr segment, which we expect to flatten out on favorable demand-supply dynamics with fiscal consolidation, FPI buying and RBI's OMOs. The corporate bond yield curve on the other hand is inverted as short end yields remain elevated due to tight banking liquidity and huge supply. We expect the corporate bond yield curve to flatten out as well, but with short end 1- 5 yr yields coming lower more rapidly as the banking liquidity improves post May 2025. Any uptick in yields due to still evolving global factors should be seen as an opportunity to build further exposure. Active fund management is critical as uncertainties may emanate from domestic inflation and global backdrop, which may influence various yield curve segments differently.

Q4. What criteria should investors consider when evaluating the creditworthiness of fixed income securities?

Ans: While the high external rating (like AAA / AA category) of issuers of fixed income securities provides a good starting point, one should also independently analyze the creditworthiness of the issuer. Various parameters like promoter's background, high corporate governance, track record of successfully managing the business across the cycles, strength of balance sheet, steady cash flows, debt servicing capabilities, external rating history, among others, can be considered to take a more informed view. Healthy credit metrics of an issuer scores better than the security package of underlying fixed income instruments.

Q5. How do you assess the influence of global economic trends, such as inflationary pressures and geopolitical events, on India's bond market?

Ans: Global market remains on edge as the US has started taking tariff policy measures against few countries. Such measures are expected against more countries, including India, thereby keeping the tensions high. Geo-political tensions have also flared up. The response function of countries may vary, adding to the overall volatility in financial & currency markets. US's further rate cut expectations are changing rapidly as incoming data suggests a healthy economy but at the same time policy disruptions may increase the risks to growth.

Against the global uncertainty, the Indian fixed income market is expected to remain largely resilient, though it may face knee-jerk reactions. The Central Government's clearly articulated fiscal consolidation path over the next few years remains a structural driver for the domestic fixed income market. Foreign investors continue to invest in the domestic fixed income market for the 4^th consecutive month with inclusion in global debt indices, even as the equity segment has seen huge outflows. The INR has proved to be relatively better across EMs, amidst currency volatility on the back of strong fundamental drivers and manageable current account deficit. Domestic inflation is showing healthy signs of moderation. Given these factors, we expect the domestic bonds market to remain largely insulated from global spillovers and react more to the domestic factors.

Q6. What is your outlook for the fixed-income market in the coming quarters, and what investment strategies do you recommend for investors seeking stable returns?

Ans: We maintain a constructive view on the domestic fixed income market on the back of favorable demand-supply dynamics for G-Secs, expected rate cuts and improving banking liquidity. Current elevated yields across the curve provide an attractive entry point. For investors looking to keep the volatility low, debt fund categories like Money Market, Ultra Short Duration and Low Duration provide healthy accruals and are expected to benefit from rate cuts & improving liquidity. Permitting the risk appetite, one may look to add duration through funds like Short Duration Fund, Corporate Bond Fund and Medium Duration Fund which can provide balanced participation in G-Sec in the 5-15 yr space and corporate bonds in 1-5 yr space. These categories will help in capturing capital gains as the yields decline.

Mr. Taher Badshah

Chief Investment Officer - Equity Invesco Mutual Fund

Taher has over 30 years of experience in the Indian equity markets. In his role as Chief Investment Officer, Taher is responsible for the equity and fixed income investment function at the firm. He has been with Invesco Asset Management, India for over 7 years. In his previous role with Motilal Oswal Asset Management as Head of Equities, he was responsible for leading the equity investment team. In the past, he has also worked with companies like Kotak Mahindra Investment Advisors, ICICI Prudential Asset Management, Alliance Capital Asset Management, etc. Taher holds a Master’s in management studies (MMS), with specialization in finance from S.P. Jain Institute of Management and a B.E. degree in Electronics from the University of Mumbai.

Q1. The year 2025 is presenting significant challenges, particularly for retail investors holding small-cap stocks. With the correction in high PE stocks, do you anticipate further market downturn or a gradual recovery as we step into FY26?

Ans: We believe the correction in the broad market and particularly in the SMID space since the start of the year has by and large run its course. Bulk of the damage is behind us. Domestic slowdown and Global uncertainty have been the key causes of the market decline. We think many of the measures taken by RBI and the Govt in the past 3 months, the start of the rate cut cycle and the support to consumption through the Budget will have their effects in the coming months to Improve growth trends. Globally, we reckon the tariff measures by the US will be in place over the next 2-3 months. We also expect the US economy to slow this year and thereby foreign investor flows to start moving from developed to emerging markets. Meanwhile, India's valuations, especially in the smallcap segment have corrected 20pc during this fall making the segment quite attractive once again for investors with a 2-3 year horizon.

Q2. Many stocks are currently trading at a 20-50% discount from their previous highs. What key criteria should investors consider when selecting stocks in this environment?

Ans: At a stock level, investors should move up the quality curve but at the same time ensure those companies are able to grow ahead of the system rate of growth (nominal GDP). Companies with credible competitive advantages and strong execution in the recent past should be preferred.

Q3. With factors like Trump's policies, trade wars, tariffs, dollar fluctuations, and a shaky US equity market-alongside Nifty hitting an eight-month low-how should Indian investors adjust their mindset and investment strategy in response?

Ans: Over time various factors will confront markets and investors in their journey. It is important to keep a longer-term view and return expectations modest. One will not find answers to all issues at the same time. It is important to be able to judge what market has already priced in. Due to prevailing uncertainties, India's valuations have lost much of their premium to world markets which provides an attractive entry point for smart investors who look to compound earnings over the long term in our view. Uncertainty provides opportunity.

Q4. If an investor approaches you with a medium risk appetite, and a significant cash reserve looking to invest exclusively in mutual funds, how would you construct a suitable mutual fund portfolio in this current market?

Ans: For investors with a medium risk appetite, I would recommend a combination of a flexicap and small cap fund (75%) at this stage of the market cycle. I would also look to do the remaining 25pc allocation to at best 1-2 thematic funds and a multi asset fund.

Q5. Do you anticipate an earnings recovery in Calendar Year 2025?

Ans: We think India's earnings downgrade cycle is largely done and with the measures undertaken by the central bank and the government, we expect the earnings cycle to strengthen in the coming quarters and alongside a steady back ended recovery in the markets starting second half of calendar 2025.

Mr. Sailesh Raj Bhan

CIO - Equity Investment, Nippon India Mutual Fund

Sailesh Raj Bhan is CIO - Equity Investments at Nippon India Mutual Fund. He has over 27 years of experience in Indian Equity Markets with over 19years at Nippon Life India Asset Management Limited. An MBA in Finance and CFA by qualification, he has been managing multiple flagship funds namely, Nippon India Large Cap Fund, Nippon India Multi Cap Fund & Nippon India Pharma Fund for over 15 years.

Q1. What are your thoughts on the overall budget and its impact on the equity markets, the economy, and other key areas?

Fiscally prudent balanced budget with its 3-pronged strategy 1) supporting consumption through tax cuts 2) maintaining capex thrust & creating better environment for bigger role private sector and 3) fiscal prudence. More disposable income is likely to lead to higher spending, better consumer - business confidence and eventually private capex recovery backed by credit growth revival. We expect the budget will be viewed positively by markets and domestic flows will be supportive.

Q2. When discussing the Budget, it's clear that several incentives have been introduced for the middle class to drive consumption. However, the capital market's expectations were not fully addressed. What are your thoughts on this?

Consumption slowdown was a key area which was sought to be addressed by the budget, however the Capex push was maintained despite the constraints of fiscal prudence. Total capex spend is projected to grow at 10% YoY against 8% in FY25. Including extra budgetary resources (IEBR), total capex spend is likely to grow 11% against 7% in FY25. Within total capex, the growth in roads and railways capex (including IEBR) is flat (0%) in FY26 ( 5-7% YoY in FY25 while defense capex is projected to grow 13% YoY in FY26 versus 4% in FY25. Apart from these measures ease of doing businesses has been the key theme of the Budget, which can help in improving Private Sector capex.

Q3. Have there been any changes in FIIs' concerns or their positioning following the Budget?

The prevailing global macroeconomic conditions along domestic factors may weigh on the sentiment of foreign investors in the short run. This along with the currency volatility based on policy shifts in the US is another parameter which will influence the flows. While the India equity valuations have moderated with large caps closer to long term averages and broader premiums have come off from the highs, it is anticipated the FIIs may remain cautious in the near term till better visibility emerges from a macro perspective.

Q4. What are the most and least promising sectors after the Budget?

Large financials, consumer discretionary segment along with structural themes like urbanization, premiumization and localization of manufacturing appear well placed in the current context

Q5. Given the recent market volatility, what are your predictions for future SIP trends? Have you observed any recent changes in SIP inflows or a shift in allocation patterns?

SIPs are great form of long-term wealth building. Given the extent of investor awareness through various educational initiatives, it is unlikely that SIP flows may witness large scale stoppages. Although, there have not been any significant changes in allocation pattern, it is likely that large cap and large cap-oriented categories like Flexi/Multi/Large Mid Cap etc. may witness higher investor preference on higher than usual volatility.

Q6. Suppose someone with a three-year investment horizon, particularly Gen Z investors who entered the market post-COVID, is now facing a 20-30% drawdown in their mutual fund. They might be questioning their decision, thinking, "What should we do?" How should they navigate this situation?

Asset allocation in line with an investor’s need is very important and in case there is deviation in the same due to market swings, its essential that the same is rebalanced in line with financial needs. Accordingly portfolio can be realigned and investors with shorter time horizon and less risk appetite can consider hybrid strategies like Balanced Advantage or Multi asset allocation funds or even consider adding some debt allocations.

Alternatively if the investor can extend the investment horizon and has appropriate risk appetite they can continue with their investments. Historically it has been observed that sharp decline in equity markets offer great opportunity to accumulate more units (at lower prices) like 2000, 2008, 2013, 2020 wherein the returns post the correction phase can be meaningful.

Mr. Amit Tripathi

CIO - Fixed Income, Nippon India Mutual Fund

Amit has 27 years of experience in Capital Markets. He has been with NIMF for more than 20 years. He has successfully managed fixed income and hybrid funds for the past two decades. Many of these funds have been recognized for superior performance both nationally and internationally. In his current role as CIO- Fixed Income, he leads a team of 22 highly motivated and experienced fixed income professionals.

Q1. Following the policy announcement, why did the bond markets initially react with disappointment, despite yields rising a few basis points?

Bonds markets reacted with disappointment post first rate cut as the move was already priced in by the market. Absence of any specific announcement with respect to liquidity measures even as the RBI guided to ensure sufficient system liquidity coupled with absence of change in stance led to spike in bond yields.

Q2. With two major events-the Union Budget and the highly anticipated rate cut-now behind us, what are your expectations for yields?

Given the good performance of long-term bond yields over the last 12-18 months risk-return trade off appears in favour of short end of the curve i.e 1-5 year. Liquidity easing measures by the RBI may lead to steepening of the yield curve, leading to lower yields at short end of the curve across assets. While a conduct of OMO purchase by the RBI is positive for 10-year benchmark GOI bond. Any incremental deterioration in growth and further rate cuts by the RBI and fall in US bond yields may be positive for long duration.

Q3. How are your debt funds positioned in terms of duration? Have the recent policy updates led to any adjustments?

We have made no changes in the duration and are on the higher side of the duration in the intermediate duration fund category to benefit from the potential rate cuts and liquidity easing measures.

Q4. What according to you were the key takeaways from the governor's speech?

• Given the current growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt that a less restrictive monetary policy is more appropriate at the current juncture.

• MPC to use the flexibility embedded in the inflation targeting framework while responding to the evolving growth-inflation dynamics.

• To proactively take appropriate measures to ensure orderly liquidity conditions.

Q5. What advice would you give investors on positioning their fixed-income portfolios considering the budget announcements and the RBI rate cut?

Given a marginal term spread, between 5 and 10-year GOI bonds at around 4 bps, with the 5 year GOI bond currently hovering around 6.65% and the 10-year GOI bond at around 6.69% we expect term spread to widen. Further, the yield of the AAA rated 3- and 5-year corporate bonds currently stands at around 7.30% and 7.26%, respectively, as compared to the 6.63% and 6.65% yield of the GOI bonds of the same tenure. Thus, offering an opportunity of spread compression of corporate bonds over GOI bonds. Further liquidity infusion may soften the yields at short end of the curve.

Accordingly in line with the current market dynamics around 70%-75% of the allocation may be considered at intermediate duration (which invests in 3-5 yr corporate bonds and 5-10 yr g-secs), such as short term funds, corporate bond fund, low duration fund, Banking & PSU debt Fund. and remaining 25%-30% at the long end of the curve.